When President Erdogan visited Russia in August 2019, the sun was shining when he ate ice cream with Putin and admired the Su-57 fighter.

But before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Moscow today, dark clouds were covering his relationship with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin due to escalating conflict in Syria. Fighting in Idlib province between Turkey and Russian-backed Syrian government troops has intensified over the past month.

Russia and Turkey, the "big players" on the Syrian chess board, are in an opposing position and are determined to keep their positions. Many hoped the two leaders could reach a ceasefire during their discussion in Moscow, but analysts were skeptical about this possibility.

Erdogan is unlikely to undermine Putin's determination to support the Syrian army to launch a large-scale operation to retake Idlib, the last stronghold of pro-Turkey rebel groups. Observers say that the Syrian army's final victory in Idlib will not only give Putin a political advantage, but also show his mark.

"Putin has emerged as a master strategist in Syria," said Yury Barmin, a Middle East expert on Russia's International Affairs Council. "Victory in Syria becomes a matter of prestige for Russia and for Putin personally."

Russia has deployed troops in Syria since September 2015 at the request of President Bashar al-Assad's administration, a move to help turn the tide of the battlefield in the Middle East nation. With the support of the Russian air force, the Syrian army in turn won major victories, recapturing much of the territory occupied by Islamic militants and Western-backed opposition groups.

For Putin, Syria is an opportunity for Russia to show the West about its military power and influence. Russia invested heavily in Tartus naval base and Hmeymim air base for battleships and bombers to show military strength throughout the Mediterranean.

"For Russia, an important goal in Syria is to ensure that al-Assad is in power so that its military remains at Tartus and Hmeymim bases," said military expert Pavel Felgenhauer.

In addition to serving as a springboard for deploying forces in the Mediterranean, Syria is also a valuable "training ground" for practical training for the Russian army, when thousands of soldiers are engaged in the war, hundreds of new weapons are tested. Experiments in real conditions. "This is an example of what Russia obtains through a combination of military and diplomatic tools," said Carnegie Center director Moscow Dmitry Trenin.

Trenin said the war in Syria gave Putin a reputation, who swore "to push terrorists into the mud" during the war in Chechnya 20 years ago.

A victory in foreign policy in Syria will help Putin "score" with the Russian public, in the context of his credit rating is declining because of economic difficulties. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Putin's credit rating in Russia increased to nearly 90%.

However, observers believe that Putin will not bluntly refuse to compromise when negotiating with Erdogan. Both Russian and Turkish presidents want to avoid direct clashes affecting bilateral relations in the fields of trade and defense.

"Putin knows he has a significant military and political advantage over Erdogan, but he will find a way for the Turkish counterpart to withdraw honorably," Trenin said.

Barmin said that Putin would seek to compromise to a certain extent with Turkey in Syria, but must "follow the rules set by Russia".

Idlib is the last territory controlled by pro-Turkish rebels. The Syrian army has launched a campaign to retake Idlib in December 2019 with the support of the Russian air force and has recaptured a number of key positions, forcing Turkey to intervene to maintain its influence in Idlib.

As of March 5, 57 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syria, of which 34 were killed in February 28 air raids. Turkey also shot down two Su-24 attackers and a Syrian air force L-39 training plane in retaliation.