North Korea may launch satellites or test nuclear and intercontinental missiles to alert the US before the deadline by the end of this year, according to analysts.
North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Ri Thae-song said on December 3 that the responsibility for nuclear talks now rests with the United States, and warned that Washington's conduct will determine their "Christmas gift". received by the end of the year. The announcement came after North Korea conducted two secret tests a week apart at the Sohae satellite launch site.
"North Korea again uses implicit threats, prompting officials from around the world to rush to find a way to decode the 'Christmas Gift' to the US, the deadline for later this year and a new path. has been exposed by the government for the past 12 months, "said CNN analyst Paula Hancocks.
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have met three times in the past two years in hopes of reaching a denuclearization agreement. Pyongyang is expected to abandon its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program, in return for Washington to lift sanctions and normalize bilateral relations.
But analysts say Pyongyang is losing patience with Washington's negotiators. "What is worrying is that all of their upcoming moves will attract President Trump's attention," Hancocks added.
The majority of experts believe that North Korea will launch a rocket to send satellites into orbit on Christmas Eve.
Pyongyang claims its space program is only for science and for peace. Kim Jong-un often asserted his desire to build "a strong and prosperous nation" thanks to its self-reliant economy and scientific and technological foundation. North Korea has successfully launched two satellites into orbit since Kim Jong-un took power in 2011.
Satellite boosters use the same technology as ICBMs with nuclear warheads. A satellite launch will reveal important information about North Korea's modern ballistic missile program, especially when the media claimed that the recent Sohae test would "help strengthen the deterrence". national nuclear threat. "
"They have not yet demonstrated the capacity to launch a large load into orbit and return it to a safe atmosphere, one of the most important requirements for ICBMs to carry nuclear warheads. The international community should not be too surprised. if the satellite test demonstrates the ability to launch a large payload north of the Pacific, "said Evans Revere, a former North Korean expert at the US State Department.
"The message will be that North Korea is capable of attacking US territory with nuclear weapons," the US expert added.
Pyongyang took similar action after reaching an agreement with Washington at the end of February 2012, in which North Korea agreed to stop testing ballistic and nuclear missiles and shut down the Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange. Get aid for hundreds of tons of food.
The deal collapsed when Pyongyang launched a satellite a few weeks later. The US believes that satellite-based boosters can be counted as long-range missiles, while North Korea rejects them. This disagreement is likely to persist to this day.
Adam Mount, an expert at the American Association of Scientists, said that Washington should have urged Pyongyang to accurately define missile tests to build a platform for negotiations.
"North Korea has increased pressure to force the United States to make concessions during negotiations over the past year. The Trump administration appears to have dreamed in the process and recently awakened in the face of a potential crisis. ", Mount added.
The larger "Christmas gift" North Korea can give to the US is an ICBM test or a nuclear weapon. This is expected to be a aggressive move far beyond satellite launch and certainly draws significant attention from Trump.
Pyongyang described the first launch of ICBM on July 4, 2017 as a "gift" for Washington on the occasion of US Independence Day. North Korea then launched two more intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 10,000-13,000 km, along with an unprecedented large nuclear test.
Sohae is the place to develop satellite and engine boosters for ICBM. Pyongyang successfully tested engines with great thrust here in March 2017, before they were used on the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 missiles, giving North Korea the ability to attack all of these targets. US territory.
"It is intended to warn the US that North Korea still has the ability to pursue a long-range weapons program. We can see the Sohae facility is serving military purposes when the Defense Academy of Science publishes notices of the incidents. try, instead of the Korean Space Agency, "said Ankit Panda, an expert at the American Association of Scientists.
"Kim Jong-un always pushes provocation when the world stops paying attention to North Korea. Trial and aggression is not the way to go if North Korea wants to lift the embargo," Sen. Ami Bera , chair of the Sub-Asia, Pacific and Non-Proliferation Subcommittee of the US House Foreign Relations Committee, commented.
North Korea has not carried out a nuclear test or ICBM in the past two years, and it also destroyed Punggye-ri test ground last year. Still, experts warn that Pyongyang can maintain deterrence capacity to ensure national security, as well as forcing Washington to make concessions in the negotiations.
"We need to remember that they are always exceeding capacity forecasts and are willing to do everything necessary to strengthen nuclear power, despite all the diplomatic costs. Never underestimate. North Korea, "Revere said.