A few days before the killing of General Soleimani, Iran first conducted joint military exercises with Russia and China, two global US rivals.

"Now, the era of US maneuver in the Middle East has ended. They must leave the region," Admiral Hossein Khanzadi, Iran's naval commander, said on Dec. 29 during a press conference on the sidelines of the exercise. joint battle between Iran, China and Russia in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean.

The exercise, called the Maritime Security Belt, takes place on December 27-30 with the goal of ensuring international maritime trade security, training against pirates and terrorism. Moscow dispatched the missile defense ship Yaroslav Mudry with a tanker and a tugboat, while Beijing sent Tay Ninh missile destroyers to join. "The results of the exercise show that Iran cannot be isolated," Iranian Admiral Gholamreza Tahani said.

However, instead of withdrawing troops, US President Donald Trump sent thousands more troops to the Middle East to deal with Iran, amid intense pressure from the two countries because of an air strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani in Iraq on Tuesday. first. Meanwhile, Russia and China do not seem to want to be drawn into the increasingly unpredictable conflict.

WSJ commentator Yaroslav Trofimov pointed out that after the murder of Soleimani, the reaction of Moscow and Beijing both stopped at criticism with no commitment to take action, although they expressed their support for Tehran. Therefore, Iran can only rely on itself, with the network of Shiite militia and proxy forces that Soleimani, Quds command commander, has built in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria or Yemen.

"Iran is one of the world's loneliest countries strategically. They see dozens of countries as rivals, while the only trusted friend is the Bashar al-Assad administration in Syria. ", Said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iranian expert at Carnegie Foundation for International Peace in Washington.

Iran's aloneness is thought to be the cause of its prudent action after Soleimani's death. General Abolfazl Shekarchi, a spokesman for the Iranian armed forces, said that Tehran would take "fierce" revenge, but "not in a hurry". According to Trofimov, this is a sign that Tehran is seeking to avoid an escalation immediately, because of the potential for full war with Washington.

Abas Aslani, senior expert at the Middle East Strategic Research Center in Tehran, added that Iran was "talking about retaliation, revenge, not a start of a war".

"If direct conflict arises, I think Iran also does not expect Russia and China to declare war on the United States for them. Moscow and Beijing can only support Tehran in other ways, such as political support or in some international organizations. The ability to supply equipment to Iran is also uncertain, "Aslani said.

Commentator Trofimov said that Iran certainly wanted to receive military equipment to replace their outdated aircraft, warships and tanks, but Russia and China were unable to provide them legally, at least until October, when the UN sanctions on most military transactions with Iran expire.

The difficulty of supporting Iran is reflected in the S-300 missile contract it signed with Russia in 2005. After the United Nations imposed sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, Russia had to cancel the contract in 2010. The process of transferring missile complexes resumed in April 2015, after six powers and Iran reached a temporary nuclear agreement. China has also pledged to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in Iran's oil and gas industry, but US economic sanctions have stalled plans.

One factor to consider is that both Russia and China maintain close ties with Saudi Arabia and Israel, Iran's two archipelagic rivals in the region.

Russia and Iran have fought together in Syria. However, as the Syrian government gradually stabilized and Russia gained a new foothold in the country by shaking hands with Turkey in recent months, Russian and Iranian interests in Syria began to divide.

Historically, Russia and Iran have also had a lot of animosity. The Russians probably did not forget the murder of ambassador Alexander Griboedov, and the famous playwright, when crowds stormed the Russian embassy in Tehran in 1829. Iran also supported anti-Soviet rebels in Afghanistan. 1980s.

The Iranian memory, meanwhile, includes lands that Russia had merged from the Persian Empire over the centuries, as well as Soviet control of the country in 1920 and 1941.

"No one in Russia really cares about Iran. They don't see Iran as a partner and certainly not a friend to sacrifice," said Alexander Gabuev, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

According to this expert, Russia and China could even benefit from the escalation of tension between the US and Iran. Conflict in the Middle East will distract the United States, giving them more time to consolidate core interests in Eastern Europe and Asia.

"Russia does not have even the slightest intention to engage in this controversial situation and is trying to avoid it as far as possible, even while continuing to speak loudly in support of Iran," Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Analysis Center. Strategy and Technology in Moscow, comments. "At least in the short term, this is entirely beneficial for Russia. Oil prices are rising and Iran, which is a fairly tough partner, is forced to become much more cooperative."

Although China is currently the largest buyer of oil from the Middle East, its experts have long warned Beijing to refrain from dipping into the volatile region, in part because oil continues to be supplied. Granted despite a series of political conflicts in recent decades.

"The Middle East is not so important in Beijing's overall strategy. Since 2011, many Middle Eastern countries have been plunged into civil war, but it has not affected China's economy much," said Niu Xinchun, an expert at the Institute. Research on Contemporary International Relations China, said.

Zhu Feng, director of the International Research Institute at Nanjing University, described China's joint naval exercises with Iran as "more symbolic than practical". "I think China is not at all concerned about its ability to engage in tensions in the Middle East," Feng added.

Although Iran cannot rely much on immediate assistance from Russia and China, the situation in the future is likely to change, said former State Department senior adviser Vali Nasr. "What Washington is doing is bringing Moscow, Beijing and Tehran closer together. They have a certain common incentive to prevent the US from exerting maximum pressure," he said.

"We will not see an impact in the near future, but after 10 years, people will realize the trouble between the Trump administration and Iran that has prompted Russia and China to develop a protection strategy, to deal with the kind of the policy that the US is using against Iran today, "said Nasr.