A group of Chinese scientists warned that the number of non-Chinese nCoV infections could increase 10 times every 19 days if no drastic measures are taken.

The study was published on March 2 on health science portal Medrxiv.org led by leading Chinese geneticist Jin Li and based on data collected until the end of February. "If not drastic interventions, the number of patients outside China will increase 10 times every 19 days, "the researchers said.

If that happens, worldwide infections will surpass those reported in mainland China within a few months. "The situation is very dangerous, we call on the world to take drastic action for public health, using experience from China and Singapore," the researchers said.

Jin is the vice principal of Fudan University in Shanghai, one of China's most prestigious universities. His previous research helped trace the common ancestor of modern-day Chinese, a small African tribe, to Asia about 60,000 years ago. In 2016, he and his team used advanced genetic analysis tools to help police capture one of China's most notorious serial killers.

The study also found the spread of viruses outside of China with 34 "undetected pathogens". To map the potential infection of Covid-19, the researchers used a simple linear model. Jin's team chose a small sample size because they thought that complicated models could lead to confusing or conflicting results.

"The patterns of the virus spread are complex but vary around the world," the researchers said. "The simple model will simplify the situation and provide an initial direction assessment."

After operating the model at the computer center of Fu Dan University, the team realized that the epidemic could have originated from the original 34 pathogens. Jin said these "carriers" may be asymptomatic and not go to the hospital. They were infected before or at the same time nCoV was first discovered in Wuhan. The first carrier of the disease discovered outside of China was a woman traveling from Wuhan to Thailand. She was diagnosed with nCoV on January 13.

The World Health Organization (WHO) on March 5 announced 14,768 confirmed cases outside of China, 21 times more than the 683 that WHO announced in mid-February. In Germany, the number of cases increased. tripled in just three days, and the situation is similar in France.

As of this morning, Covid-19 has appeared in 98 countries and territories with more than 102,000 cases. Other scientists have warned that Covid-19 may be at an early stage.

In a paper published in January, Dr. Ira Longini, a WHO biologist and adviser, predicted that two-thirds of the global population could be infected. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch said in an interview with CBS News earlier this week that about 40-70% of the world's population could be infected.

Despite gloomy forecasts, a study published in the medical journal Lancet in January predicted the number of infections in China would surpass 160,000 by early February. infections in mainland China are less than 81,000.

Attempts to stop China's spread of the virus, including the blockade of the entire Hubei province, seem to have worked. A Chinese government scientist working on the United Nations development program in Beijing said the global number of cases was affected by many factors, including seasonal changes and drug development. or a new vaccine.

If the number of infections outside mainland China continues to grow rapidly and other countries "give up", strict containment measures in China may be useless, resulting in unforeseen consequences for people and the global economy. China has recently shifted its focus to preventing cases from returning from abroad, and imposing some travel restrictions on travelers from high risk countries such as South Korea and Italy.

"These measures cannot last. We cannot shut down with the world. Stopping international exchanges will be disastrous, especially for China," an anonymous researcher said. "In today's world, no one can live happily ever after simply solving their own problems."