With the diminishing of the presidency, Putin is expected to continue to take power with a new role after the end of his term in 2024.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced on January 15 that he and all government officials resigned shortly after President Vladimir Putin proposed a constitutional amendment to increase power for the prime minister and parliament. The notable amendment granted the Russian House of Representatives the right to choose the prime minister and senior positions in the cabinet, which belongs to the president.
Sharing the president's rights with the prime minister and parliament could be a sign of a long-anticipated power shift in Russia, experts say.
Critics say Putin is calculating various scenarios to take over the country after his presidency ends in 2024, including the possibility that he will become prime minister with power. bigger.
Similarly in 2008, Putin changed from president to prime minister to "bypass" the constitutional provision that prohibits a person from taking over two consecutive presidential terms. At the time, Putin was said to have made all the important decisions behind President Medvedev, his closest ally.
In a statement yesterday, Medvedev also said that the resignation of government officials is to pave the way for reforms proposed by President Putin.
President Putin "raised fundamental changes in the constitution, important changes not only with some constitutional provisions but also with the balance of power in general," Prime Minister Medvedev said. "In this context, it is clear that we, the government ... should provide the President with the ability to take all necessary measures" to make changes. All subsequent decisions will be made by the President. "
Putin then nominated the head of the Federal Tax Agency Mikhail Mishustin as prime minister. The Russian lower house will vote for the country's next prime minister on January 16.
"In my opinion, this is a cooperation between Putin and Medvedev," commented Valeriy Akimenko, a long-time Russian researcher working at the Center for Conflict Research. "Medvedev is not an independent politician in any way and did not create a wave against Putin during his time as president. Like in 2008, this time it seems to be an agreement between the two. side".
But not all analysts believe Putin will eventually arrange for himself to be prime minister. Oleg Ignatov, an expert at the Center for Contemporary Policy based in Moscow, noted that the Kremlin boss also mentioned changing the role of the State Council, which is acting as an adviser to the president. Russia.
"There is speculation that Putin will lead the State Council instead of becoming a new prime minister," Ignatov said. "If that happens, it is likely that his words will be orders. He will not pay much attention to the technical details, but everything will be controlled by Putin."
Akimenko agrees that such a role would be more beneficial to Putin. "The future role of the State Council is not yet determined, but it may become an arbitration body, meaning that when a dispute arises, the State Council will have the final say."
According to observers, the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Medvedev and Russian government officials besides Putin's proposed constitutional change has brought clarity and vague fog to Russian politics.
What is clear is that Putin will resign after the second consecutive presidential term ends in 2024 as defined by the constitution. "Why does Putin propose to reduce the power of the president if he does not want to narrow the rights of his successor," commentator Roland Oliphant from the Telegraph said.
But exactly how the balance of power between the executive and the legislative branches of the government will change and where Putin will put himself in that arrangement is an unanswered question. This ambiguity seemed to be deliberately created, Oliphant speculated.
It makes opponents uncertain where power will lie by the time Putin leaves the seat. This is a good thing for Putin when he is trying to maximize control over the country in the final years of his presidency, but makes it difficult for anyone who is aiming to implement long-term plans such as Russian economic policy decision.
The speculation will focus on the two options given by President Putin to turn the State Council into an officially recognized body in the constitution and turn Medvedev into his deputy at the National Security Council.
Nikolai Petrov, a senior researcher at Chatham House, said Putin was seeking to maintain control of Russia's powerful national security apparatus even when he left the Kremlin and balance the power between the president. with parliament.
Another possibility is that Putin may be seeking to build a role like the supreme leader above or alongside the president, similar to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
"Still, I think the chances of Putin becoming prime minister are still greater," Akimenko said.
At that time, "who became president no longer matters because the presidential chair was no longer important," said Sam Greene, head of the Russian Institute at Imperial College London.