Leading health experts warn that the situation in the UK is proceeding in line with the trajectory of the Covid-19 crisis that is crippling Italy.

The Italian government on March 9 ordered a nationwide blockade and banned more than 60 million people from moving between cities to prevent Covid-19 from spreading. The number of infections in Italy now exceeds 10,000, making the country the second largest epidemic region in the world.

"What just happened to us is like an exploding bomb," said Professor Giacomo Grasselli, who coordinates the network of intensive care units in Lombardy, northern Italy, about Covid-19. this country. "I will be very careful at this stage because it spreads very fast, like a fire."

Before the epidemic crippled Italy, former British physician Adam Kat warned in a Twitter post that Britain would witness the situation like Italy is now in "the next two weeks". He has currently recorded nearly 400 cases of nCoV.

"The trajectory of the epidemic in England is almost equivalent to that of northern Italy, only about 2-3 weeks slower," warns Francis Balloux, a professor of biology at the University of London. According to him, in less than a month, Britain could face blockade orders as what Italy is applying.

After nCoV infections occurred in ski resorts in northern Italy, many towns in the area were frozen and then the whole country. Italians could be sentenced to prison if they deliberately violate a blockade, schools are closed, Serie A professional football leagues are stopped, public transport is delayed, museums and major events public restriction.

He has so far not taken any drastic measures to prevent the virus from spreading, while officials have expressed confidence that they can stop the disease. However, Professor Mark Handley of the University of London has built a chart that shows Covid-19 in England, Germany, France, Spain, the US and Switzerland are all following the same trajectory as Italy. These countries all saw a new daily increase of about 33%.

Professor Handley compares these countries to Japan, where the rate of increase is significantly lower and the case is diagnosed longer. "Other countries will be like Italy in 9-14 days," he said.

UK Public Health Deputy Director Jenny Harries predicts that thousands of people will be infected with nCoV. Most people have mild illness and do not need medical help, while others may require hospitalization and a small percentage will develop pneumonia, leading to death.

"We have recorded quite a few cases now, which is why we are still in the containment phase (the first step in the government action plan)," he said. "But then we will have an unprecedented number of new infections, even for professionally trained people like us."

He thinks that a large number of people in the UK will be infected because they do not understand nCoV and no one has antibodies to the virus. "We will see thousands of people infected with nCoV as we see in other countries. It is important to ensure that we control those infections well."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was faced with a backlash on March 9 after he did not decide to upgrade the government's response to Covid-19, despite advising Britain could face an outbreak. significant translation. The spokesman of the British Prime Minister said that the country is still in the stage of preventing the epidemic and has not moved into the stage of preventing infection in the community.

A spokesman for Johnson said the UK government's response was based on scientific recommendations. "Since the outbreak, all our decisions have been based on the best available scientific information and we will continue to do so," he said.

However, former British International Development Minister Rory Stewart said that based on the disease situation in China and the Ebola epidemic in Africa that he experienced, Prime Minister Johnson could not wait any longer. "The government will eventually have to order the school to be closed. We should do it tomorrow," Stewart said on March 10.