Washington: The WTO Appellate Body now has 3 out of 7 members only after two years of being barred by the US from electing new members and possibly paralyzed after December 10.

December 10 is the time when two of the three remaining members of the Appellate Body (SAB) of the World Trade Organization (WTO) have completed a four-year term. The three members are the minimum number for the SAB to receive and resolve trade-related complaints among WTO members.

For the past two years, the US has prevented the WTO from appointing new members to the SAB, the highest judicial body of the WTO that has the function of resolving trade disputes. All 7 SAB members must be elected on a consensus basis and no new member will be selected to this agency unless the US nods.

As the administration of US President Donald Trump continues to prevent the WTO from appointing new judges to SAB, international trade disputes in the near future will not be resolved, causing the system to enforce the provisions of WTO almost paralyzed.

According to experts, the "misery" situation of the WTO takes place in the context of not getting worse, when the US-China trade war has caused global trade turmoil and decided to apply a new tax on goods. Chinese chemicals are likely to be implemented by Trump next week.

The fact that the SAB, the world's leading commercial arbitration body, is in a state of paralysis could prompt countries to find ways to resolve trade disputes themselves with "forest laws", paving the way for tariff wars. "tit for tat" fierce.

It could also be a sign of the decline of the 24-year-old organization, when the arbitration system for trade disputes has long been the most effective operating mechanism of the WTO.

"The WTO is facing the biggest crisis since its inception," said Phil Hogan, European Commissioner for Trade in the European Parliament on 30 September. "If international trade management regulations are no longer enforced, we will only have 'forest laws'," said Hogan.

President Trump accepted this scenario, ready to use America's economic power to demand better trade terms. He ignored the WTO rules by unilaterally imposing metal taxes on allies like Canada, Europe and Japan, as well as continually raising punitive tariffs on Chinese goods, which made the WTO continuously receive. complaints.

Trump and senior advisers have long considered the WTO an "obstacle" that hinders him from fulfilling his "America first" promise. Washington argues that the WTO has hindered the United States from protecting workers and expanding its influence as the world's number one economy. Trump and his advisers also criticize the WTO in favor of China, which has boomed since joining the organization in 2001, while seemingly doing nothing to curb unfair trade practices. of Beijing.

Trump advisers pointed out that WTO's inability to confront China is the reason Trump launched a trade war with Beijing.

"It is very important that the US has the ability to make its own trade policy," said Stephen Vaughn, a former US Trade Representative adviser. "This possibility becomes even more important when we are facing challenges from China."

The WTO was established by the US and Europe more than two decades ago as a solution to open markets around the world, regulating trade and promoting peace and stability. One of the organization's main responsibilities is to create trade agreements between member countries and resolve disputes in accordance with regulations.

However, the WTO almost failed to draft trade agreements, as it realized that reaching consensus among member states such as the US, China, Afghanistan and India was It seems impossible.

China's accession to the WTO from December 11, 2001 made the organization more tense. China with more than one billion consumers participating in the world market has created a great opportunity for many international businesses, and is also a shock for US workers and many other countries when competing. compete with a cheap workforce.

WTO rules were drafted before China's accession, and critics argued that the organization had failed to prevent Beijing from mobilizing private enterprises under state-controlled support. world industry.

The Trump administration criticized the WTO's decision to allow China to enjoy a special status as a developing country, even though it is currently the world's second largest economy. The United States also condemned the WTO for not trying to prevent China from subsidizing product prices and instead opposing Washington's measures to prevent cheap goods from flooding into the country.

While the function of facilitating trade negotiations among WTO member countries is largely paralyzed, the organization's trade dispute resolution body has proved to be more effective in receiving dozens. complaints every year.

Unlike other international organizations, the WTO is capable of enforcing its decisions. When a country is determined to suffer losses from other countries' trade activities, the WTO may allow the affected country to compensate through "retaliation" taxes.

The US has won most of its WTO cases, though Trump has often claimed otherwise. In October, the WTO allowed the United States to tax US $ 7.5 billion worth of European goods each year, after ruling that Europe had illegally subsidized Airbus.

"We have never won with the WTO, or basically will not be able to win," Trump announced on 16 December when he met with Italian President Sergio Mattarella. "And now we are winning a lot. We are winning a lot because they know if we are not treated fairly, we will leave the organization."

However, the United States has also lost a number of lawsuits and the Trump administration is facing many challenges by repeatedly launching tax punishing trade partners.

Japan, Canada, the European Union (EU) and many other countries are counting on the WTO judicial system to determine whether Trump's tax attacks on aluminum and aluminum products violate trade rules. or not. However, many countries, including the EU, Mexico and Canada, cannot wait for the WTO's ruling and have taken retaliatory actions against US goods.

Supporters of the WTO argue that the organization's dispute settlement system has brought order to an international trading system that is where "the strong bully the weak". But critics say the system has too much control, especially when the seven members of the SAB make a binding verdict.

US officials, including former US President Barack Obama's administration officials, have accused the WTO appellate body of carrying out judicial activities, arguing that they are beyond their authority to create new rules.

Robert Lighthizer, US Trade Representative, said that WTO decisions hinder US workers' ability to protect workers and affirmed that the organization needs to be reformed. In March, he told members of the Senate Finance Committee that the WTO was moving "from a negotiating forum to a conflict resolution forum", which would stifle new trade deals and make undermining the commitment of some countries to the organization.

Over the past two years, Mr. Lighthizer has carried out "a targeted attack" on the SAB that he deems to change the agency, constantly opposing the appointment of new judges for the appellate body. of the WTO.

Other countries share concerns with the United States, especially with regards to China, but they disagree with Trump's approach. They believe that the United States and other countries should solve problems and strengthen global trading systems, not undermine it.

The risk of global trade rules weakening makes countries with smaller economies more concerned. This is also a headache for the EU, which has a strong belief in the multilateral system with an economy dependent primarily on trade.

"Trade rules are not perfect, because they are born in a certain context, but they have done a good job," Cecilia Malmstrom, former EU trade commissioner, announced in September. they are not perfect, cooperate to improve, not destroy them ".

But Washington officials say the proposed reform of the WTO does not meet their requirements. Dennis Shea, the US ambassador to the WTO, said that the US had participated in a constructive spirit, but "has not seen other countries take a similar approach".

WTO members are discussing new measures to deal with the possibility of SAB disappearing, such as establishing an informal appellate process regardless of the organization's ruling. Many countries hope that the SAB can be restored when Trump leaves office, although it may have to wait until 2021 or 2025.

WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said last week that the suspension of SAB operations was a serious challenge, but this "does not mean an end to the multilateral trading system".

However, Ujal Singh Bhatia, one of the two SAB judges, will be out of office on December 10, arguing that by crippling trade dispute settlement, the United States has raised doubts about effectiveness. of the WTO.

"Why do people have to join the WTO to negotiate regulations if they are not sure that they can be enforced," Bhatia said.