Ankara is said to have achieved everything it wanted after a deal with Washington to suspend a military operation in Syria for five days.
Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on October 17 came to Turkey to persuade the country to stop attacking the Kurds in northern Syria.
After discussions with Turkish officials, he claimed to have reached with Ankara a ceasefire in northeastern Syria effective for 120 hours. Accordingly, Turkey and its allies agreed to suspend the Spring Peace military campaign against US-backed Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. In turn, the Kurdish forces also agreed to cease fire and retreat for 120 hours above.
Not long after, Turkey announced the suspension of Operation Spring Peace campaign for the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and the Syrian National Defense Force (NDF) to withdraw from the established security buffer zones. However, Ankara noted that this was not a ceasefire.
According to experts, the most positive thing the deal reached was that it could prevent bloodshed in the Kurdish lands under control in northern Syria. But the cost to the Kurds, a long-time ally supporting the United States in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) self-proclaimed, is very heavy, when tens of thousands of Kurds will be homeless because withdraw from the 30 km buffer zone along the border.
Even the Pentagon officials are baffled as to where these people will go, while they themselves are not clear how much the US will pay for the current problems with the Kurdish ally. at any rate.
Over the past 11 days, the US military has hurriedly pulled out of important outposts on the northern border of Syria, pushing Kurdish militias into a direct confrontation with Turkish regular forces and facilitating Syrian government troops and Russian forces returned to the northern border. This has shaken the belief in American allies that in times of tension, Washington will stand by them.
"It is like the United States is giving in completely to everything the Turks demand," said Eric S. Edelman, a former US ambassador to Turkey, a senior US State Department official under President George W. Bush. Bush, comment. "I have not seen the Turks give up anything".
In fact, if the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Turkey are removed as Vice President Pence promised, Ankara will pay a much lower price than Moksva when they annexed Crimea. territory in 2014. U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia are still valid.
But there are still other victors besides Turkey, who have long considered Kurdish groups to be terrorists who live on American support.
The first is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has become increasingly influential in the Middle East, where until 2015, Moscow did not have a significant "voice". Currently, Putin is the main player and has filled the political and territory gaps that Trump left after the White House boss announced his withdrawal.
Victory also called Iran. They have long used Syria as a missile transport route for Hezbollah forces and demonstrated their strength throughout the region. When the US is no longer present, Tehran will reduce an obstacle. This is the most confusing point in President Trump's decision to withdraw troops because it goes against the strategy of "putting maximum pressure" on Tehran that he is pursuing.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is also facing a great opportunity to protect the territorial integrity, which is difficult when the US military is still present in Syria. Syrian military units are thought to have tried to attack the US garrison in the northeastern part of the country, but had to retreat quickly before the enemy's overwhelming firepower.
But President Trump has a different perspective. "I am pleased to announce a resounding success with regard to Turkey," he told reporters after Vice President Pence informed of the deal with Ankara. "This is a great result ..., something they've been trying to achieve for the past 10 years."
Trump's delight shows a very different view from his military generals, diplomats or Republican leaders who think he has damaged the credibility and influence that the United States has. have been building efforts around the globe.
While Trump and the Democrats have accused him of betraying their allies and supporting Russia, the US president still insists he is simply fulfilling his campaign promise, bringing troops home from ". endless wars ".
Some Republican members are also skeptical about the deal reached in Ankara. "Today's announcement is being portrayed as a victory. It is far from a victory," said Republican senator Mitt Romney. "With the initial details of the ceasefire, the government needs to explain what the future role of the US in the region is, what will happen to the Kurds and why Turkey is not subject to any what consequences ".
"The agreement also cannot change the fact that the US has abandoned an ally," he added.
At the Pentagon afternoon 17/10, senior officials are not understand how they will implement the agreement between Vice President Pence and President Erdogan.
A number of civil and military officials complain that the agreement has left major policy and logistical gaps, along with a series of questions as the commitments made by the two sides seem to conflict with the current situation. fast place on the battlefield.
With the United States hastily withdrawing 1,000 troops from Syria, officials do not know how the force can conduct counterterrorism with the Turkish army, or whether the Kurds in Syria will comply. the entire deal withdrew because if so, they clearly admitted defeat.
The questions have not stopped there. How big and deep is the buffer zone inside Syria able to provide Turkey with a safe area separating their borders from Kurdish militants? The original safe zone the USA and Turkey envisioned was 120 km long and 32 km deep. But that was before President Trump gave the green light to Ankara's military campaign and now, the Turkish army has crossed that boundary.
What does the US need to do with the forces of Assad and his Russian allies, whom the Kurdish militia sought after being abandoned by Washington?
It is also unclear whether Turkey was required to withdraw all or part of its forces. A US official said the reason Ankara agreed to the deal with Washington was that the Kurds were fighting harder, so that the Turkish military could not advance further to the south.
Many Pentagon and US State Department officials who have worked on Syrian policy or have been deployed to northeastern Syria are surprised, angry, and skeptical when the government for the second time in less than two weeks. Turkey concessions. According to them, President Erdogan was the overwhelming victor and probably did everything he wanted.
US military officials said they were "stunned" by the deal, essentially allowing Turkey to annex part of Syria, leaving tens of thousands of Kurds homeless and wiping out the fruits of the results. Years of fighting against IS.