When the Russian-Turkish leader reached an agreement to end the fighting in Syria, many people thought that the losing side was the Kurdish most.

The agreement on October 22 pushed the Kurds out of the 30-km-wide buffer zone, more than 400 kilometers long along the Syrian-Turkish border, almost causing them to lose control of key areas. In return, Turkey agreed to halt its Operation Spring Peace campaign against Kurdish militias and patrol the common border with Russia.

Many experts think the deal is a victory for Moscow and Ankara, because Turkey wants to push the Kurds away from its borders and unarm its forces, while Russia places priority on the removal of fighting forces Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Kurds seem utterly at a loss when faced with the great pressure from Turkey.

However, expert Shukriya Mahmoodee, co-founder of the Kurdish Research Institute in the US (AKRI), said that the Kurds are the winning party in the deal, while Turkey may suffer a "bitter fruit" with it was the moves they made.

In the context that Russia has never asserted that the Kurds want independence in Syria, Moscow's statements about "Syrian territorial integrity" are in opposition to Turkey's military action on its borders.

Turkey has always considered the Kurds a terrorist, but Russia does not consider the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) or the Democratic Unionist Party (PYD) as a terrorist organization or separatist force. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the Syrian National Army (SNA) rebel group backed by Turkey is a "terrorist organization".

While Turkish officials praised the agreement with Russia as a "great success", Ankara could face the possibility of YPG and the Syrian army cooperating against NSA rebels. Another scenario is even drawn as the YPG merges with the Syrian government army to coordinate the regained territory controlled by rebels, especially Idlib province bordering Turkey.

If the Assad regime regains control of Idlib province, Ankara's influence in Syria will end here. This made many Turkish experts concerned about how President Tayyip Erdogan had to deal with 110,000 fighters of the NSA rebels beaten in the province and possibly running to the Turkish border.

The Russian-Turkish deal on October 22 will be an opportunity for Putin to "erase" Erdogan. Turkey over the years has publicly demanded the overthrow of the Assad regime, and backing for the NSA is also part of this plan. Since 2011, Erdogan has been trying to drive Syrian government forces out of the common border area by repeatedly asserting that "the Syrian regime has no legal status and no status to guarantee its integrity." earth ".

However, with the above agreement, Moscow wants Ankara to recognize the current government in Damascus and wants Erdogan to "embark" on Assad. Although allowed to patrol with the Russian military police, the Turkish army will have to cede border control to the Syrian border according to a schedule set by Russia and Iran.

Once the Syrian border forces have settled in the border region, joint patrols between Russia and Turkey will likely end.

In addition, the Kurds and Russians are discussing a plan to integrate SDF forces with the Syrian army, as a fifth army. If this agreement is implemented, Turkey will have to accept the truth. that the Kurds will remain in the area, but with a different name.

Under the Russian-Turkish agreement, all YPG forces and weapons will have to leave the towns of Manbij and Tal Rifat. However, under an earlier agreement between the SDF and Russia, Russian and Syrian troops will be deployed to the region to prevent Turkish attacks.

If the SDF is merged into the Syrian army, Turkey will receive a "bitter fruit" when the Kurds and government soldiers can conduct a joint military campaign against the NSA rebels who control Afrin. .

Control areas in northeastern Syria following the Russian-Turkish agreement. Graphics: Bloomberg.

This is SDF's top wish in all military cooperation with the Syrian army. In turn, SDF forces can help the Syrian army attack areas controlled by pro-al-Qaeda armed groups in Idlib province. This partnership is something Erdogan never wanted to become a reality.

Erdogan wants to establish a safe zone of 480 km long, 32 km wide within Syrian-controlled territory of Turkey, and repatriate two million Syrian refugees. However, according to the agreement, Turkey is only allowed to patrol with the Russian army in a 10 km wide area inside Syria. In addition, the possibility of repatriating two million Syrian refugees is also unlikely, as the refugees may prefer to return to their homeland rather than being taken to an NSA-controlled place.

Since the start of the talks, Turkey has been the only country opposed to the Kurdish autonomy having a place on the negotiating table. However, Ankara will now have to accept to allow the Kurds to participate in the negotiations. During a joint press conference with Erdogan, Putin stated that "the Kurdish rights in Syria should be respected". Besides, the United States has also talked for the first time about securing a place for the Kurds in the peace process in Syria.

Compared to Turkey, the Kurds are in a better position on the diplomatic front after Ankara's campaign for the Spring of Peace has received harsh criticism. The international community condemns Turkey's military action, saying it is a plan to eliminate the Kurds and other ethnic minorities in the region.

Turkey also faces allegations of war crimes and the use of prohibited weapons against civilians, which could seriously affect Ankara's position.

Russia will hardly attack the Kurds, as both the Kurds and the Arabs in northeastern Syria have accepted the Assad administration to manage the area. Moscow will try to promote a political solution between the Kurdish and Damascus self-government to stabilize the situation in Syria after years of turmoil.

Besides, the US maintenance of a force in SDF-controlled territories, as well as the plan to send more troops to protect the region's oil fields will be a "bargaining card" for the Kurds on the table. negotiate with Russia and Syria.

The recent agreement also reveals rifts within Ankara, even from those who have supported Erdogan. A former government official who praised Turkey's military operations recently asked the United States to reject Erdogan's claims and is asking the President to negotiate with the Kurds in Syria.

It seems that the supporters of Erdogan are aware that what they expected from the last military operation will not come true, and many people have stopped supporting the President. Therefore, with the recent "counterproductive" military operation, Ankara's "gamble" may end up with a very expensive price.