Two months ago, Trump hinted that the U.S.-China deal was about to be reached, but this week, he said the move could be delayed until the end of next year.
"I like the idea of waiting until after the election before reaching an agreement with China," Trump told reporters in London when he appeared with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. "But they want to reach an agreement now and we'll see if the deal is okay."
This is a change of tone of Trump, who had previously hinted that the trade war might end. Trump also stated that a new import tax could be imposed on goods from Germany and any NATO allies that do not pay the organization enough money, but that is an incorrect description of how the military alliance is maintained. Member states are required to maintain strong military spending, not organization fees.
The Trump administration is considering tariffs as high as 100% on French goods including wine, cheese and bags, in response to Paris imposing tariffs on online economic activities, affecting Big US companies like Amazon and Facebook. Washington also threatens to take similar action with Italy, Turkey and Austria.
The threats sparked speculation that the Trump administration might abandon the tax negotiations that took place through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. However, the US Treasury Department, which leads these negotiations, is likely to maintain its efforts.
Trump's preference to use unpredictability as a negotiating tactic has frustrated trading partners and rocked the financial markets. On December 3, stocks fell in Europe and the US, the S&P 500 dropped about 0.7% on December 3.
While some analysts argue that Trump's threats are negotiating tactics that the market should ignore, others say that previous investors have been too optimistic about the prospect of resolving the war. commercial paintings. European leaders warned they would retaliate if Trump levied taxes on French goods, blaming him for escalating a multinational battle over taxing technology companies.
Some economic forecasts warn Trump is shaking the "health" of the global economy with his statements. Bernard Baumohl, global chief economist of the Economic Outlook Group, writes in a study that Trump "does not seem to care about the economy's fragile situation". He commented that Trump's comments on trade "frustrated people".
Business groups expressed concern over Trump's comments about China. "We want and need to see an agreement as soon as possible," said David French, vice president of government relations for the US National Retail Federation. "Taxes continue to hurt US businesses, workers, and consumers and are a significant deterrent to the US economy.
But some analysts say a delay in reaching an agreement with China could bring political benefits to Trump. "Any deal reached now will be scrutinized over the next 12 months, especially in the election season," said Henetta Treyz, director of economic policy research at investment consulting firm Veda Partners. to speak. "The trade war is now political and President Trump is benefiting from bipartisan voters all having aversion to China."
Trump's inconsistent views were clearly shown on December 3. Sometimes he alluded to tensions with trading partners like France and China that could easily be resolved. But in other statements, he said he would make a final decision only if he liked it and that the United States could roll out more taxes. Trump also expressed that he would not accept a "peace" agreement with China but only accept favorable conditions for the US.
US officials seem increasingly pessimistic about the prospect of reaching a first phase trade agreement with China. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that waiting until after the election to reach a deal would give Trump additional leverage to negotiate if he was re-elected.
"When he is re-elected there will be no more factors that can influence our negotiating stance," Ross said.
Ross said that the first-phase deal that Trump had "tipped off" in October was good for the US, but there were many details that were not finalized, such as which agricultural products China would buy from the United States and how the deal would be implemented. come on. The Minister said that if there is no breakthrough, the US plan to tax 160 billion USD of Chinese goods from December 15 will take place.
"We don't have a breakthrough until everything is clear and white," he said.