When Trump announced his readiness to "deliver olive branch" to Iran after the missile strike, many expected this to be a new door of negotiations.

This soothing statement was made by US President Donald Trump in a speech on January 8 after Iran launched a "limited response" to two bases with US troops stationed in Iraqi territory. The fact that Iran's attack did not cause casualties for American soldiers, along with Trump's optimistic statement, lit up expectations for a new phase in Washington-Tehran relations.

"We are ready to sit down and discuss a new path towards the future, including steps to make Iran a normal country," US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Monday.

But just one day later, all Trump mentioned about Iran on Twitter was about anti-government protests going on in the country. "Dear Iranian leaders, don't kill the protesters. Thousands of people have been persecuted or imprisoned by you and the world is watching. More importantly, the United States is watching," Trump wrote.

The US president even wrote the message in Iranian Farsi. "The National Security Adviser said today that sanctions and protests have strangled Iran and forced them to negotiate. Actually, I don't care whether they negotiate or not. It is entirely up to them, but don't own nuclear weapons and kill protesters, "he wrote on Twitter.

According to Slate commentator Fred Kaplan, these statements from Trump show that he is not interested in negotiating with Iran as expected by Western leaders and diplomats. "It's clear that the only thing Trump and his top advisers want now is to change the Iranian government," Kaplan said.

U.S.-Iran relations in recent weeks have undergone tense events, culminating in the US air strike on the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Quds of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), outside Baghdad airport, Iraq on January 3.

The killing of Soleimani caused Iran to launch a missile strike in response, but it caused another incident as the air defense incident accidentally shot a Ukrainian passenger plane on the outskirts of Tehran, killing 176 people. . Protests broke out in Tehran to protest the Iranian government after the tragedy.

Kaplan said that if Trump's key desire was "Iran does not own nuclear weapons," he should not have withdrawn from the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal signed with six major powers. back in 2015, after tough negotiations.

"Iran asserted that in any case, Iran will never seek, develop or receive any nuclear weapons," the text contained. The next 159 pages also describe verification measures and procedures to prevent Tehran from possessing any nuclear weapons for at least 15 years.

Regarding the statement "no killing the protesters", Kaplan commented that the US President has no way to stop or deter the Iranian authorities about this. In addition, this does not seem to be the true purpose of the Trump administration, but what they aim for is more clearly expressed by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

"The voices of the Iranian people are clear. They are too disappointed with the government's lies, as well as the corruption, incompetence and brutality of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) under the time. Khamenei. We will stand with the people of Iran who deserve a better future, "Pompeo wrote on Twitter.

In a speech at Stanford University on January 13, US Secretary of State explained "a better future" means that Iran can behave like a normal country, "like Norway".

Commentator Kaplan argued that the voices of the Iranian people were not as "clear" as Pompeo said. "Hundreds of thousands of people protested against the corrupt government, but there were also hundreds of thousands who protested against the killing of Generalimim Soleimani. All were voices of the Iranian people, even some with both mandarins." point on, "Kaplan said.

Even if the people of Iran agree, it does not mean that they want, or the government will agree, to make the country a version of Norway.

"I don't mean to offend Norway, but to expect Iran to be like Norway is like telling them to accept little or no influence in the region. No country agrees to reduce its role. as Pompeo suggested, "suggested journalist Daniel Larison of American Conservative magazine.

Kaplan said that Pompeo's "be like Norway" proposal expressed a desire to change the US regime in Iran. However, experts say this scenario is unlikely, because despite the pressure from the economic downturn and the harsh sanctions, the Iranian government is still firmer than what it is. Trump and the advisory team envision.

"The Iranian government has a strong foundation and full control of the use of force, and does not hesitate to use them. If the protests become more serious and widespread, the elite units in the IRGC are able to ability to use force to maintain power for the government, "said Bruce Riedel, a former expert of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Kaplan added that even in the event that the government of President Hassan Rouhani cannot control the crowd, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds true power, will form a new government.

Even when an extremely unrealistic scenario occurred as Khamenei and his administration collapsed, Iran's successors were unlikely to be among the pro-Western youth. Instead, the ruling faction may be IRGC officials, who are also unwilling to negotiate with the mass protesters or discuss nuclear disarmament with the West.

Colin Kahl, a former Middle East expert at the Pentagon, cites the case of Egypt, where young protesters forced former President Hosni Mubarak to resign, but power in the country ultimately belonged to the nation. army. Like the IRGC in Iran, the Egyptian military controls many of the country's economic and political leverage.

Although it is difficult to reverse the internal situation in Iran, Kaplan said that Washington should not ignore the actions in the country as well as in the Middle East of Tehran. "Instead of missing the opportunity to negotiate with tough statements, the Trump administration needs to maintain exchanges with Iranian leaders for the common good, while continuing to pressure the country's leaders," he said. identify.