Trump has repeatedly expressed hope for the US-China signing of the trade agreement at APEC, but he did not anticipate the host nation Chile canceling the event.

Chile plans to host conferences of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference on November 16-17 and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-25) days. 2-13 / 12 in Santiago. However, President Sebastian Pinera announced yesterday canceling both events because the country is facing a wave of bad protests. Protests started as students protested an increase in subway fares, which quickly turned into violent out of control. People took to the streets demanding economic reforms and Pinera resigned.

APEC, a forum for leading 21 economies' leaders to boost trade and investment, said it supported Chile's decision but gave no indication that there would be a replacement conference this year. COP-25 is where representatives of 190 countries discuss how to reduce global emissions. The United Nations is looking for new venues for the conference, but said the event could be delayed.

Jorge Heine, a former Chilean minister and now a professor of politics at Boston University, said the decision could significantly influence Chile's international status, which is considered to be one of the stable states. most in Latin America.

"It is not easy to reschedule conferences because the leaders are full," he said. "The confidence of the international community in Chile may be impaired and that will not easily recover."

In fact, the focus of APEC attention this year is not the agenda of the conference but the long-awaited meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In the middle of the month, Trump announced that the US - China is working to finalize the first-phase trade agreement, covering financial, monetary and agricultural services. He hopes the deal can be signed during the summit with Xi.

There is no international meeting in the near future so that Trump and Xi can meet on the sidelines, because Trump is not attending the East Asia Summit in Thailand next week. Trump suspended plans to raise taxes from 25% to 30% on about $ 250 billion of Chinese goods on October 15. But the White House has not postponed or canceled a plan to impose tariffs on about $ 156 billion of Chinese goods from December 15.

An anonymous source said the White House intends to suggest some US locations such as Alaska or Hawaii as an alternative APEC venue. However, trade experts have found it very difficult to organize such an event in the short term.

"The summits, especially the one with 21 leaders, requires careful preparation and the replacement of an event in just two weeks is completely impossible," Matthew said. Goodman, former US National Security Council official, said.

The White House "clearly signaled that they really wanted the Trump-Xi meeting to take place," Goodman said. "But it seems likely that they will let the trade ministers or ambassadors sign the first phase agreement and 'save' the next summit."

Meanwhile, China proposed the two leaders meet in Macau, according to an unnamed Chinese trade source.

Michael Hirson, from the Eurasia Group advisory group, said that last-minute changes could cause the US-China to delay the signing of a trade agreement, but there is a 70% chance of the two sides signing the agreement before the end of the year. "Both leaders are motivated to accelerate the negotiation plan, avoiding escalation of the situation, causing economic and political risks," he wrote.

A delay in signing the agreement could cause businesses and financial markets to continue to be insecure because it is uncertain how the trade war will unfold. "There is a risk that lower-level talks will continue for a long time without concrete results," said Edward Alden, an expert from the Council on Foreign Relations.

The US government will often help Chile resolve the political crisis so the summit can proceed, Alden said. "However, the White House is now busy with Trump being investigated for impeachment and crisis created by himself."

Some experts say that the cancellation of APEC is not a big obstacle. "I always consider Chile to be simply a place where Trump and Xi have a schedule," said Brendan McKenna, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Securities in New York. "If both sides are willing to sign an agreement, they will manage to do so."

US - China recently said it has achieved significant progress in negotiating the details of the agreement, which requires China to continue buying US farm products, making commitments on intellectual property and currency, in exchange for Trump abandoning tariffs on Chinese goods. However, to accomplish this before the November 16-17 deadline is always considered a challenge.

So Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that "in the risk of having luck", the delay of the Trump - Xi meeting gave negotiators more time. work. "If the two sides really intend to sign the first phase agreement, the cancellation of APEC is only a logistical headache, not a factor that could cause the agreement to collapse," he said.

"If one or both parties feel they have not reached a deal by mid-November, the cancellation of the conference is a great reason to have more time," Blanchette added.