When many experts warned in 2016 that Brexit would lead to disaster, Boris Johnson's confidant said "the country already has enough experts".

Now, Prime Minister Johnson asserts that the UK is responding to Covid-19 on the advice of experts, as it records about 2,000 cases of nCoV, more than 70 deaths and more than 60 recover. The problem is that Johnson's advisers often disagree or change their views.

That was evident this week, when Imperial College London published a startling report, warning that without restraint, Covid-19 could cause 510,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million. the dead in America. The report caused the British government to suddenly change its response. US officials said it also prompted the White House to increase its social isolation measures.

The Royal University of London has advised the government on how to respond to previous diseases, including SARS, avian and swine flu. They are a group of 50 scientists related to WHO, led by renowned epidemiologist Neil Ferguson. The Royal University is considered the "gold standard", the models they offer are considered by the government when deciding policies.

The report concludes that the virus will overwhelm hospital systems and that governments have no choice but to apply harsh blockade policies. But some experts point out that there have been many reports or social networking sites giving warnings to the Royal University, but are not of interest to London.

"It is not what they say but who speaks," says Devi Sridhar, director of the global health management program at the University of Edinburgh. "Neil Ferguson is very influential."

The Royal University used to be part of the advisory group that devised a strategy not to impose social isolation measures but to allow nCoV to spread, arguing that if Covid-19 was released at its peak, they would achieve "immunity." community, "making the public more resistant if facing a second outbreak next winter.

Now, the Royal University is no longer supporting that strategy, saying it will overwhelm the hospital while many people are in critical condition. They say the UK needs to take restraint measures like closing schools, quarantining infected people and their families. Measures will help reduce the number of new infections and slow the spread of the virus, helping hospitals not to admit large numbers of patients at once.

Ferguson stated frankly that his team rejected the old strategy and came to a new conclusion after reviewing the latest data from Italy, where the spread was so fast that the hospital was overloaded, doctors could not control it. Cures for all patients.

"According to our estimates and other groups, there is really no choice but to learn from China and put in place measures to control the epidemic," Ferguson said in an interview on March 16, shortly after. when the report is published.

Ferguson's team wrote that they "had come to a conclusion in the past few days", after completing estimates of the number of patients requiring intensive care, based on the situation in Italy and the UK.

But other experts say the hospital's overwhelming pressure has been a problem since the outbreak in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The British medical journal Lancet published an article in January, based on the study of a small group of patients, indicating that one third of people infected with nCoV must be placed in intensive care.

"I couldn't help but be angry when it took nearly two months for politicians and even 'experts' to understand the danger level of nCoV," Richard Horton, chief editor of Lancet, wrote on Twitter. "Those dangers were clear from the start."

Some argue that governments should also view epidemic policy forecasts with similar levels of caution. Ferguson's team says that social isolation measures may have to be applied for 18 months or more, until the vaccine is developed and tested. But they admit uncertainty about this assessment.

And Ferguson himself may have been infected with nCoV. On March 18, he announced a high fever and a dry cough. Despite not being tested, Ferguson said he was at risk of becoming infected after attending a press conference at 10 Downing Street and isolating himself.

The British government insists it has abandoned the old strategy and moved on to a policy that urges people not to go to public places such as pubs, restaurants, theaters or museums.

On March 17, government science advisor Patrick Vallance said the new restrictions could last for several months. All non-emergency surgery will be postponed for at least three months, starting April 15, to release 30,000 beds to cope with Covid-19. He lagged behind other European countries in the supply of ventilators. They are working on plans to increase the number of ventilators from 8,000 to 12,000 but it is not necessarily enough to meet demand.

Prime Minister Johnson was inspired to criticize the policy because it was unclear. He urged people to avoid pubs and restaurants but did not order them to be closed. In fact, the government intends to relax the law to allow pubs to remain open and provide home delivery.

Shortly after Prime Minister Johnson called out, his father, former politician Stanley Johnson, vowed to continue going to the pub.