Although ISIS has been defeated with the death of the Baghdadi leader, the battle for influence in the former militia's land seems to have just begun.

The death of Supreme Leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is considered the "last chapter" in the last five-year effort of more than 70 countries in the international coalition to defeat the Islamic State (IS) militants themselves. confess. However, the fall of the IS also left large gaps in rebel-controlled lands in Iraq and Syria, opening the risk of parties competing for influence in the region.

The saying "a country can win the war but lose peace" seems to be fulfilling with Iraq and Syria, where IS once occupied an area the size of England. The fight against rebels has destroyed many cities in both countries, millions of people have been taken asylum as well as thousands are still missing.

"Defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria does not help these countries get peace again," said Seth Frantzman, director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis (MECRA).

The decision to withdraw US troops suddenly from northern Syria, which was liberated by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from ISIS, left space for Turkey to conduct a military operation, causing about 200,000 Kurds to flee their homes.

The remnants of ISIS still linger in northern Iraq, entering and leaving villages south of Mosul and taking advantage of the disconnect between the Kurdish Regional Government and the Iraqi federal forces. The overlapping military forces in the region also cause new insecurity, in contrast to the sense of security when Iraq declares to completely defeat ISIS in the country.

The commoners in the former IS-controlled areas, from Raqqa in Syria to Mosul in Iraq, are the ones who feel the most insecure, and the "open wound" after this war may not be easy to close.

Military developments, more recently a Turkish-backed rebel force that controls the town of Tal Abyad and the United States who sent troops to guard the oil fields in Deir Ezzor without regard for the local communities, have shown. a new competition for territory, power and resources in the post-IS period.

The conflicts in Syria and Iraq seemed to subside between 2017-2019, when Russia, Turkey and Iran began to join the fight against IS. However, the forces that helped these countries defeat the IS are scaring many people.

The Iraqi General Forces (PMU), a predominantly Shiite Muslim militia group that once repelled ISIS in Iraq, is accused of killing protesters in the country in October. is closely related to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

Meanwhile, the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) rebels are attacking the Kurds on the Syrian-Turkish border. The SNA has repeatedly been accused of violating human rights in areas where Turkey helps it to control.

Syrian airspace also became the focus of the battle for influence between Iran and Israel, both countries considered Syria a "strategic corridor". In the Israeli view, the greater Iranian influence in Syria means the easier it is to provide Hezbollah rebels with accurate guided rockets to threaten Israeli security from the Golan Heights.

Iran has made no secret of its backed militias supporting the Syrian army in the fight against IS and rebels. Israel, meanwhile, accuses Iran of seeking to establish a permanent military presence in the country to increase its influence in the region.

The Israeli Air Force acknowledges that it has carried out a series of air strikes on targets deep inside Syria to destroy missile launchers, ammunition depots and military facilities of pro-Iranian militias.

Regional and global powers are seeking to scramble for influence in lands reclaimed by ISIS. While northeastern Syria is home to the US-backed SDF, the northwestern region is where pro-Turkish rebel groups are in control.

Turkey wants direct control or the use of rebel forces to control the entire northern region of Syria. These forces control the cities of Afrin, Idlib, Jarabulus and Tal Abyad. However, Russia forced Turkey to stop its military operation in northern Syria and join joint patrols with the Russian military police.

Map of influence of forces in Iraq and Syria. Source: Seth Frantzman.

Russia maintains its forces in the port city of Latakia and sends military police to parts of eastern Syria, seeking to fill the gaps left by the US military and reach an agreement with Turkey.

Iran, through Shiite Islamic paramilitary forces such as Hezbollah and PMU, is also free to operate in Iraq and Syria. The US, with SDF, despite actively reducing its influence in the region, but this force still plays an important role with 1,000 troops in Syria and 5,000 troops in Iraq. Since the war against ISIS, the United States has maintained a cooperative relationship with Kurdish forces in northern Iraq.

According to Frantzman, the US campaign to destroy Baghdadi represents a short-term anti-terrorism strategy, unable to promote any long-term solution to resolve regional instability and eradicate ISIS. .

While the United States no longer wants to continue to engage in "an unending war" in Iraq and Syria, countries like Iran, Russia, and Turkey are caught up in geopolitical conflicts and overlapping interests, through efforts to strengthen the ally's position and influence more than to find a lasting peace solution for the region.

"The countries participating in the annihilation of ISIS seem to be dragging themselves into the quagmire they have created," Frantzman said.