Hours after Putin proposed changing the way he was appointed prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, his longtime ally, resigned.
Putin proposed a series of constitutional changes on January 15, including allowing parliament rather than the president to choose the prime minister, changing the term of office for the president and strengthening the role of the State Council, the agency. advising the president he heads. After Medvedev resigned, Putin nominated the head of the Russian Federal Tax Agency Mikhail Mishustin as the new prime minister.
Analysts see the change as Putin's preparation for the political future when he finishes his fourth presidency in 2024. Putin has not said what he plans to do but the Russian constitution prohibits the president from holding more office. two consecutive terms, so Putin could not immediately re-election.
Anyone who is chosen to be prime minister will be considered a potential successor, similar to the way Putin left the presidency in 2008 to become prime minister under Medvedev and Medvedev then became prime minister when Putin was elected. third installment of 2012. So attention will now be on Mikhail Mishustin.
Analysts speculate that after the end of his term, Putin will still take control and direct policy in a different role. He could maintain as head of State Council or return to prime minister position.
Some argue that Putin intends to create a system similar to Kazakhstan, where longtime president Nursultan A. Nazarbayev resigned last year but later retains the new title of "leader of the people" and still regulates. onions country.
"It is impossible to say what role Putin will play, and what position he will play. The only thing that is clear is that he will continue to be the number one power in the country," said political analyst Mitchsei Chesnakov.
"A transition of power has begun," said independent political analyst Valery Solovei. "But Putin probably doesn't want to be noticed anymore. He may want to run from behind the scenes."
Nikolai Petrov, senior researcher for the Russian and Eurasian Program at Chatham House, also said that Putin is planning to maintain power after 2024, but said that his State of the Union address little information. "Putin described the constitutional reforms as not very specific," he said. "We need to wait for more information to come out."
Analysts said Medvedev was "disgraced" by Putin. While Putin makes foreign and foreign policy decisions, Medvedev is responsible for domestic and economic policy. Last summer, there were major protests in Russian streets because of people discontent about the economic situation and the standard of living. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political analysis firm, said Medvedev was increasingly unpopular with the public.
As Putin prepares for a transition, he needs someone he can trust. "This is an unexpected 'divorce' between Putin and Medvedev," Stanovaya said. "Putin is looking for someone who can help carry out his constitutional reform and through that, he will influence the future successor. It seems that Medvedev is not that person."
Mishustin has comprehensively reformed the tax authorities, helping to solve the corruption problem. He was regarded by the Western media as "less known" and that may be one of the reasons Putin nominated him, Abbas Gallyamov, who was the one who wrote the speech for Putin.
"This choice can satisfy the public's desire to have new faces," he said. "Mishustin is a technocrat and Russia certainly needs economic reforms."