No one knows what is happening inside the Kremlin and maybe that was Putin's intention.

Putin last week proposed a constitutional change in his State of the Union address, including allowing parliament rather than the president to choose the prime minister, changing the term of office for the president and strengthening the role of the House Council. the country, advisory body for the president to whom he is headed.

However, the nature of Putin's plan remains a mystery. When Putin announced the changes, the first reaction of the analysts was that it provided the foundation for him to retain his power after the fourth term ended in 2024. They believed that parliamentary Increasing power can help Putin become a powerful prime minister. Or he could continue to lead the State Council and still run the country from behind the scenes.

But the events that followed took place so quickly, different from Putin's usual style that many observers now wondered if anything else had happened. Political commentators have come up with various theories, showing that they are all confused.

Putin often surprises opponents, not knowing what to do next. So the current ambiguity may be part of the Kremlin's goal. "The president created a vague mist, after which he was determined to reform the political system based on a new ideological plan," political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov wrote in the Novaya Gazeta.

Shortly after Putin announced the constitutional change, longtime ally Dmitry Medvedev resigned as prime minister, his replacement was Mikhail Mishustin, leader of the lesser known Russian Federal Revenue Service.

There is an opinion that Medvedev was "disgraced" and Mishustin was Putin's potential successor. However, there are those who believe that Mishustin is in fact a technocrat, that is, appointed for professional skills instead of political calculations. Medvedev, meanwhile, has a new role as president of the Russian Security Council, which advises the president in running the state, planning domestic, foreign, military and security policies. This position may have the same function as the vice president (Russia abolished the vice president position since 1993), making Medvedev the new potential successor.

The bigger question is what Putin's future will be like. New clues emerged on January 20 when Russia announced a 29-page bill to enact constitutional changes Putin outlined last week.

Political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann wrote that the first thing she noticed about the bill was a comma: Many paragraphs seemed to be missing commas, it seems the bill was drafted and published in a hurry.

This document shows that the prime minister's power will not be expanded as much as many think, while members of the State Council will still work at the discretion of the president.

So maybe Putin's plan is to continue to be president? This theory was initially remote, but is now increasingly considered by many. The Russian constitution currently prohibits the president from holding office for more than two consecutive terms, and Putin proposed adjustments to ban the president from holding office for more than two terms.

Some argue that this change could be the real point: The Kremlin may argue that the constitutional amendment would "restart" the term limit counter, allowing Putin to stay in the Kremlin for another two. tenure.

Others, meanwhile, argue that the Kremlin's hasty push for constitutional changes and the creation of a new government suggest that Putin may want to give up power or stop a coup. However, they gave no evidence.

Marat Guelman, former Kremlin communications strategist, wrote on Facebook: "I will make a risky prediction, but I am quite sure it is true. Mr. Putin is definitely about to resign."

The new cabinet, announced on Sunday evening, retains the most prominent members of the former government, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The new appointments are ministers of health, sports, education and economics, suggesting that Putin wants to show that he values domestic affairs while not planning any foreign changes. .

Konstantin Sonin, a Russian economist at the University of Chicago, says that constitutional changes are unlikely to be related to the 2024 power transfer plan. The Kremlin often quickly adjusts its policies to respond to major events. foreseen. Therefore, it is unlikely that Putin's strategic planners would plan such a long-term plan. Instead, these developments may be the result of a power competition between conservative factions and progress in Putin's close aides.

"I don't know how this will end," Sonin wrote.