The United States may no longer have the opportunity to conduct operations similar to the raid against Baghdadi in Syria after Trump's decisions.

The US Special Forces raid killed the supreme Islamic State (IS) leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, on October 26, considered a "near-perfect" feat. The US also made a "double" when destroying Abu Hassan al-Muhajir, Baghdadi's right-hand man, in a drone strike (UAV) on October 28.

These American successes were the result of a combination of US military and intelligence forces as well as between the United States and its regional allies. However, recent moves by the administration of President Donald Trump may prevent the United States from launching similar attacks in the future, according to security analyst Thomas S. Warrick.

The raid on Baghdadi's lair is considered a blow to the IS, but its successor leader and other terrorist organizations will quickly learn from their experience, seeking safe havens that the forces can. American special forces and unmanned drones.

"I have attended experience meetings in the fight against IS, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations at home and abroad. Over the years, we have learned how to defeat the terrorist organizations like IS, and our success is based on two important factors, which can be ruined by the recent decisions of the President, "Warrick, who has more than a decade of work at the Department of Homeland Security, said.

The first element Warrick gave was that the United States was losing areas to deploy its military operations in the field. The remnants of ISIS are still hiding in northern Syria, where Trump unexpectedly announced his withdrawal.

Previously, the US Air Force was free to operate in this area and the ground forces could coordinate with Kurdish militia in Syria to collect intelligence. But since the withdrawal decision took effect, they have lost the freedom to carry out these activities.

Syrian and Russian government troops have "filled the void" left by the United States, along with Iran's ability to engage. All three forces are making it more difficult for US Air Force operations in northern Syria. Even the Baghdadi raid on October 26 must be hastened before the United States loses its right to intervene on the Kurdish territory in Syria and deploy air forces in northern Syria.

In Iraq, where IS militants are hiding, Trump's tough policy with Iran is straining relations between Washington and Baghdad, as Iraq is increasingly closer to Iran.

The Iraqi government has tried to remain neutral between the "US" and Iranian "friends", so Trump's actions have cornered Iraq. Baghdad responded by limiting the number of troops and missions the US was allowed to carry out on its territory. Last week, Iraq bluntly announced that it would not allow US troops from Syria to be permanently stationed in the country.

US Army UAV attacks on terrorists will continue to be deployed, as this will limit casualties to the United States. However, deploying UAVs to conduct air strikes in places like Afghanistan is becoming more and more difficult when Trump has ordered a troop withdrawal, which reduces the ability to track and find the whereabouts of terrorists. Dad in the area.

In addition, Warrick said that successes in the US counter-terrorism efforts in Libya, Afghanistan, Somalia and Yemen are forcing IS elements and other rebel groups to seek safer havens. With the ability to adapt quickly, the leaders of these organizations will seek refuge where US intelligence and UAV cannot reach as in Baghdadi's case.

Turkey is where terrorists know that the US cannot deploy special forces and UAVs to attack. The rift in US-Turkey relations may further affect the two countries' anti-terrorism cooperation efforts.

This is a very serious problem because Baghdadi is destroyed while hiding in Idlib province, a few kilometers from the Turkish border. Although Turkey's anti-terrorism capabilities have recently improved, the remnants of ISIS can still hide or transit in the country to join the "centipedes" of the organization in Europe or elsewhere. .

Unmanned aerial attacks and raids on the ground depend on allied networks and the ability to gather intelligence. For the recent successful raid, the Kurds in Syria have provided the United States with important intelligence about al-Baghdadi, and besides that, they also support raids and machine attacks. American drones targeting IS fighters for the past three years.

Trump's unexpected move to withdraw troops from Syria "paved the way" for Turkey to attack US Kurdish allies. That "betrayal" will make it difficult for the US to get the help of other minorities abroad if necessary, especially when asking them to risk their lives.

Warrick argues that the second factor that makes America's comprehensive counterterrorism capacity is the ability to build a network of intelligence, defense and relationships with regional partners. This is not something that can be achieved in a day or two and it took the United States decades to acquire that capacity.

The former Obama administration also took years to build complex networks, contributing greatly to the elimination of Osama bin Laden in 2011. During the campaign to destroy Baghdadi, Kurdish militias had contribute important intelligence to help US special forces fulfill their missions.

But now the United States is at risk of losing the ability to conduct military operations similar to the raid operation against Baghdadi and unable to develop new military capabilities for the future.

US special forces will still need to launch raids, but security officials agree that the "kill" is not a top priority in the fight against terrorism. In policy dialogues, special generals also warned that the United States would not be able to win comprehensively with only military measures.

These officials said that the United States needs to strengthen non-military measures, such as tracking, arresting, prosecuting and imprisoning terrorists, as well as preventing them from boarding and crossing the border.

However, this approach requires huge funding, as the United States needs to invest more in helping allies build mechanisms against civil terrorism, aviation security, border security and prevention. terrorism and law enforcement capacity. This may be what makes President Trump unhappy.

After ordering the withdrawal of all US troops from Syria, Trump changed his mind, allowing the maintenance of several hundred special forces there, but with the primary task of protecting the oil fields. According to Warrick, US soldiers guarding the oilfield in northeastern Syria will take every opportunity to stop IS, but this is not enough.

"Don't confuse that with the full support from the President, which is needed to ensure that IS is defeated permanently," the expert said.