While the US embassy in Baghdad was devastated by an Iranian pro-attack, the Iraqi Prime Minister tried to explain the situation to Trump.

"Iraq is sandwiched between a friend more than 8,000 km away and the neighbor has been with us for 5,000 years. We cannot change our geographical and historical position. This is the reality in Iraq," said Prime Minister Adel. Abdul Mahdi said during a phone call with US President Donald Trump on the first day of the new year, according to Abdul Hussain al-Hunain, a close adviser to the Iraqi Prime Minister.

Thousands of protesters the day before threw gasoline bombs, broke walls and stormed the US embassy in Baghdad outraged by US military action in the country. US air strikes in three positions by pro-Iranian Kataib Hezbollah have left 25 gunmen dead and at least 51 wounded.

A few days later, the situation became more tense when Trump ordered an air strike to kill General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds task force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard, outside Baghdad airport on January 3. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of the Iraqi General Forces (PMU), was also killed in the attack.

The Iraqi Parliament later passed a resolution demanding the end of the foreign army's presence in the country. Iraqi Prime Minister's Office said yesterday that Abdul Mahdi had asked the US to send a delegation to Iraq to establish mechanisms to implement congressional decisions.

For many Iraqis, pushing the US out of the country has been delayed for too long. Some feel grateful that Washington helped them topple the Saddam Hussein government in 2003, as well as fight with Iraqi forces to drive away the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) rebels. However, they were still angry at the huge civil losses after the US arrival and the severe torture of prisoners at Abu Ghraib.

Militants killed in recent US air strikes are also members of Iraqi security forces, widely regarded as heroes for their role in fighting ISIS.

"A hot air is engulfing Iraq. The US withdrawal will help us regain a part of Iraq's self-respect after air strikes and violations of sovereignty," adviser al-Hunain said. Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi also criticized Washington on Tuesday for "seriously violating sovereignty" when killing Iranian general on Iraqi territory.

This feeling is especially strong for Shiite Muslims, who are the majority in Iraq and support Iran. Tehran has long had a desire to push American forces out of neighboring territory, saying it was an immediate threat.

However, according to NY Times commentator Alissa Rubin, the Iraqi parliament's unanimity to turn its back on foreign troops amid tensions is a reckless move, leaving potential consequences for the country.

"The great pressure from the people has led to the decision to ask foreign troops to withdraw. However, we can endure it instead of bearing the consequences of the departure of Americans," an Iraqi official said. Good name.

Only 170 of the 328 Iraqi parliamentarians voted. Most of the non-participating members are Sunni Muslims or Kurds. Ahmed al-Jarba, one of the few Sunnis to attend a parliamentary session, said the departure of US troops would benefit Iran.

"Neighbors are our friends or bosses? Are we going to put our country's prosperity and decisions in the hands of our neighbors?" Jarba said of Iran.

According to al-Hunain adviser, Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi hopes that after the US forces leave, Iran, a "giant" in the Middle East, will no longer feel concerned about security and leave Iraq alone. However, Iraqi government officials, diplomats and scholars pose the opposite scenario. They said that Iraq could be forced to "lean into Iran's arms" when the United States cut off aid and isolated the West.

Another danger, even for Iran, is the risk of an ISIS rise without American help. Although the Sunni extremist group no longer controls Iraqi territory and the scale has shrunk, militants still attack almost daily.

Unnamed sources familiar with the matter said that if the US withdrew, Europe and other coalition forces would do the same, because they relied on U.S. technical and logistical support, such as illness. American Hospital at Baghdad International Airport helps treat soldiers from all 30 countries in the coalition.

US forces in the Middle East (click on image to enlarge) Graphics: Statista / Washington Post.

Iraq also faces economic pressure, when President Trump warned of punishing the country "in a way they never had before" if the US military was deported. The White House boss also said that the cost of US bases in Iraq was expensive, "costing billions of dollars to build", so the United States would not leave "unless Iraq returned the money". According to commentator Rubin, the sanctions could also help Trump expand the campaign to put maximum pressure on Iran, when its economy and Iraq are closely linked.

The sanctions may include freezing the assets of the Iraqi government at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, thereby cutting off the country's dollars. The Iraqi government sends profits from oil sales here and withdraws them to pay salaries and staff contracts.

The United States could also end waivers that allow Iraq to buy Iranian gas to fuel power generators in the south, which produce at least 35% of the country's energy. Iraq may seek other sources of energy, but it is difficult to do immediately. As the weather heats up, a shortage of electricity can cause instability and this situation happened in 2018.

Another concern is that foreign companies will reduce or suspend operations in Iraq to ensure safety. Some US contractors left a few days after the murder of General Soleimani because they did not want to "catch bullets".

However, Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi was prepared to face those potential consequences. "It seems that the opinions and decisions in the prime minister's office are tilting to the east (Iran). They barely care about the tough road they are taking," an unnamed senior Iraqi official said. .

Joost Hiltermann, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group, said the problem was that no one in the Iraqi government seriously considered the possibilities of settlement. "Iraqis don't want both the US and Iran, but if they have to choose, they will try to balance both sides," Hiltermann said.

Experts say there are still a number of potential measures to resolve Iraq's deadlock, such as discussions with foreign coalition nations about retaining some American troops, thereby helping to maintain the alliance. anti IS. The European countries themselves also want to ensure the ability to deal with IS rebels in Iraq due to concerns about the rise of this group. An unnamed Western diplomat said the UK and France were working out measures, focusing on preserving the outcome of the fight against ISIS.

Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi has asked the Iraqi National Security Council to submit a summary of options to help enforce the National Assembly's resolution. According to an unnamed official who understands the issue, the first option given is to ask the US military to leave as quickly as possible. This way at least helps the US military to avoid attacks from pro-Iranian militias.

The second option is an agreed withdrawal. This option will delay the expulsion of foreign forces and possibly help maintain the fight against ISIS in some locations. The final option was to renegotiate an agreement with the US-led coalition, allowing some troops to stay, opening the door to maintaining international forces. The Iraqi National Security Council proposed the third option.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Washington would not comply with Baghdad's request to prepare to withdraw troops, and expressed his desire to continue discussions with the government about "proper structure", adding that the US military will continue its mission of training Iraqi forces against ISIS.